Carlsen huge favourite

Carlsen huge favourite, less pain in store for Anand fans
Amit Karmarkar, TNN | Nov 7, 2014, 07.15 PM IST

If the World championship rematch between challenger V Anand of India and champion Magnus Carlsen of Norway starting in Sochi on Saturday, gets ‘close’ this time, Anand will be the most likely winner. But for that to happen, Carlsenmust allow it to run close.

Instincts would tell that Carlsen can still win 3-0 or 4-1, not counting the draws of course.

And even if Anand loses by a convincing margin, we won’t feel he has lost as badly as in Chennai last year. For, we have tweaked our expectations from him this time.

Fear factor

Most importantly, the ‘fear factor’ (so vital in any sport) has changed hands. Somewhat.

Since the 2012 Gelfand match, Anand was in the protecting mode, too much in love with the concept of sickening draws, and was deservedly punished in Chennai. But now, there is nothing to lose and everything to gain situation.

On the other hand, Carlsen could feel jittery as he has to protect his crown.

Their recent form is unlikely to have much bearing on the texture of the match. For, World title head-to-head contest is a different ballgame altogether.

Carlsen’s challenge

More than Anand the opponent, Carlsen has to battle against two bigger rivals: his own invading thought process (“What if I lose this match?”) and his own over-confidence spread over these 15-20 days.

Though Carlsen won’t prefer close battle and the resultant tension to retain the title, it could help him in the long run. He is guaranteed more ‘growth’ as a Matchplay player if the Sochi match goes to the wire.

So, if the Norwegian wins with a convincing margin, Fabiano Caruana and Vladimir Kramnik would well afford to feel happy. For, the chances of them beating Carlsen increase with a one-sided result of the Sochi match.

Has Anand got a weapon up his sleeve?

Team Anand is trying to project himself as the confident, baggage-free and enjoying challenger going by their twitter and media-related activities.

Is he trying to suggest they have cracked the Carlsen code: a secret formula to beat Carlsen’s defence in the middle game; or completely negate his offensive options in the endgame?

Has Anand found a surprise weapon, an equivalent of a Sicilian Dragon (Kasarpov vs Anand, 1995); a Berlin defence (Kramnik vs Kasparov, 2000) or ‘1d4! & Semi-slav Meran (Anand vs Kramnik, 2008)?

Of course, Carlsen can simply ignore all these possibilities, and refrain from wasting his time to figure out what his opponent is going to try against him. After all, sometimes, it is better to concentrate on your strength and game and revisit the principles of chess that made you a champion.

Fortune and beyond

We have to keep an eye on the lady luck too. She was clearly singing for Carlsen in Chennai as Anand failed to press enough in Game 3 and blundered in Game 9. His body language as a champion was at an all-time low then and that helped Carlsen feel good.

But now, the lady is having other thoughts. She ensured that no rival of Anand’s was having a plus score with a round to spare in Candidates (the previous Candidates had two players with +4 and two with +2 at that stage) that also helped the Indian qualify for the title match.

By defeating Kasparov in the Fide elections, by reducing the prize fund and by selecting Sochi, ‘she’ has roughed some feathers in the Carlsen camp.

An early slip-up from Carlsen could lead her to literally dance in Anand’s favour.

Battlelines clear

Anand has recently said that apart from knowing the process to win, you train in chess to gain confidence before and during the actual battle on the board. It means knowledge breeds quality confidence, and quality confidence leads to quality execution.

Of course, the problem is Carlen is not particularly short of either knowledge, confidence or execution. How many holes can Anand really find in these facets of Carlsen?

If Anand has to regain the title, he has to be at his psychological, physical and cerebral best. To attain all that at this age (he is 44, Carlsen is 23) is damn tough. And even if he attains that, he must hope that Carlsen drops his guard or gets consumed by his own over-confidence.