Analysis of the 8 remaining players:
Bareev-Leko
Grischuk-Rublevsky
Aronian-Shirov
Kamsky-Gelfand
What do you think are the strengths and weaknesses of each player? Which would be the closest match?
Chess Daily News from Susan Polgar
The break down
Bareev-Leko
Leko will win because he cannot lose to Bareev.
Grischuk-Rublevsky: Tactics will prevail Grischuk!
Kamsky-Gelfand
This is a good matchup too! I think Gata’s innate great chess talent will prevail against Gelfand’s praxmatic style.
Aronian-Shirov
To me this is the most exciting matchup of chess styles.
Bareev-Leko
Leko ought to win as has been higher class, but Bareev is no pushover as Polger found out.
Grischuk-Rublevsky
I would marginally expect Grischuk to win, but Rublevsky is older and wiser and see how he dealt with Ponomariov. So I would not be much surprised with an upset. This is the weakest pairing (perhaps 2 of the weakest three match players on in this pairing) so expect the winner of this to be one of the tail-enders at Mexico.
Kamsky-Gelfand
This is the best match-up and the toughest to judge. This is THE heavyweight contest of them all- it is quite a shame the pairings weren’t different to give a chance for them both to be at Mexico.
They both were successful candidate match players 10-15 years ago (both beating up on the young Kramnik!) but Kamsky’s success in those days was greater. However Kamsky has had time away and has problems with his openings, while Gelfand is very solid, hard to beat, and played at the top almost continously. Gelfand has a good record against Kamsky too. I would worry for Kamsky that Gelfand might just be too tough for him at this stage unless he can get his openings together. Should be a great match.
Aronian-Shirov
I think that Aronian should win this one fairly comfortably, as Shirov tends to come unstuck against the very top players like Kasparov and Anand, Aronian is not that strong yet but he is kind of in that space between the reat and the top few. Kramnik had problems with Shirov but I think Aronian plays nothing like Kramnik- he is more like Anand and Kasparov in his style (different, but closer). Aronian 3.5- 1.5 Shirov. Should be exciting games though! Aronian will play better than in first round I predict.
Bareev – Leko:
Leko will win, although Bareev is very solid, as he has proved against Judit.
Grishuk – Rublevsky: Grishuk will take over.
Kamsky – Gelfand:
Gelfand shall probably prevail due to Kamsky’s poor opening repertoire. Nevertheless this will be the most difficult match.
Aronian – Shirov:
Aronian is too tough for Shirov. The latter is no more as strong as he was a few years ago.
Bareev-Leko -> should be a safe win for Leko. I know Bareev surprised Polgar but Leko played great and overall is the better player.
Grischuk-Rublevsky – should be an easy win for Grischuk.
Kamsky-Gelfand – a good match-up. I hope for Kamsky but if I had to bet I’d pick Gelfand.
Aronian-Shirov: Aronian should win easily. He already looks like someone who could, and probably should, be world champion. Shirov has lost a step lately while Aronian continues to get better. This one could be quite lopsided.
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Thank you.